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08/25/2010 - Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Newly-acquired Rod Barajas hit a three-run home run in the sixth inning to lift the Los Angeles Dodgers to a 5-3 win over Milwaukee in the opener of a three-game set.
Matt Kemp hit a two-run home run, a 447-foot shot in the second inning off Dave Bush. Barajas, who was acquired from the New York Mets on a waiver claim Sunday, finished the game 3-for-4 for the Dodgers, who have won two of their last three games.
Ted Lilly (8-8) won his fifth consecutive start as he gave up three runs on seven hits over 6 1/3 frames.
"That was a good one for us," said Dodgers manager Joe Torre. "Our catcher the other day had three hits, too. I guess our managers dumb for batting them eighth. The two doubles were a bonus, but the home run was a game-changer. When you get traded sometimes, you're so excited to get to your net team."
Rickie Weeks hit a solo home run while Casey McGehee went 3-for-4 with an RBI for the Brewers, who have dropped their past two games. Bush (6-11) was handed the loss as he was charged with five runs on 10 hits over six innings.
"Bush would like to have a couple of pitches back," said Milwaukee manager Ken Macha. "A couple of two-strike breaking balls got too much over the plate and accounted for all their runs. Besides that he pitched good."
The Dodgers went ahead in the second as James Loney led off with a single and Kemp followed with a blast over the center field wall.
The Brewers got a run back in the bottom of the second as Prince Fielder led off with a single and McGehee brought him home with a triple to make it a 2-1 game. McGehee was stranded at third as the next three batters recorded outs.
Milwaukee then went ahead in the fifth. With two outs, Weeks homered to right to tie the game. Alcides Escobar then singled and Ryan Braun's double to left scored Escobar for a 3-2 lead.
Los Angeles, though, surged ahead in the sixth. With two outs, Ronnie Belliard kept the inning alive with a single and Jamey Carroll followed with a single. Barajas then launched a pitch over the left field wall for a 5-3 lead.
Lilly worked around a leadoff double by McGehee in the sixth and got the first out of the seventh before handing the ball to Ronald Belisario, who set down the next two batters.
With one out in the eighth, Fielder doubled, but McGehee lined out to third and Fielder was caught off the bag for the double play to end the frame.
Hong-Chih Kuo came on to close the game and got the first out, but Carlos Gomez laid down a bunt single. Jonathan Lucroy then hit one back to the mound and Kuo's throw to second base went into the outfield, leaving everyone safe. Kuo, though, then got pinch-hitter Corey Hart to pop out and Weeks to strike out and pick up his fifth save of the season.
Game Notes
Former Milwaukee owner and current baseball commissioner Bud Selig was honored with a bronze, 7-foot statue in front of Miller Park on Tuesday...Each team has won twice in the season series...Gomez was reinstated from the 15-day disabled list prior to the game as he was suffering from a concussion...Lilly has won all five of his starts with Los Angeles since coming to the team from the Cubs.
<< Rockies upend Braves behind De La Rosa
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dexter Fowler's two-run single in the eighth
gave the Rockies some breathing room in support of Jorge De La Rosa's solid
start in a 5-2 victory over Atlanta.
De La Rosa (5-4) scattered six hits and two ru
<< Oswalt plays outfield after Howard ejection
PHILADELPHIA (AP) -Roy Oswalt became the first Phillies pitcher to play a position in the field in 39 years after Ryan Howard was ejected in the 14th inning on Tuesday night.Oswalt caught a routine fly ball from Astros catcher Jason Castro, earning
<< Richard's Kid out to defend Pacific Classic title
Del Mar, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Richard's Kid, trained by Bob Baffert, will
defend his crown in Saturday's $1 million Pacific Classic at Del Mar versus
nine challengers. The winner of the 1 1/4-mile stakes will automatically gain
entry i
<< Rangers hold on to edge Twins
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Michael Young's infield single scored Andres
Blanco with the go-ahead run in the seventh inning, lifting Texas over
Minnesota, 4-3, in a battle of division leaders.
Josh Hamilton belted his 29th h
Richard, Padres shut out Diamondbacks >>
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Clayton Richard pitched six strong innings
and the San Diego Padres used a pair of two-run homers to defeat the Arizona
Diamondbacks, 5-0, in the opener of a three-game series.
Richard (12-5) allowed t
Johnson helps Astros win marathon against Phils >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chris Johnson's infield single scored the
go-ahead run in the 16th inning, as the Houston Astros pulled out a 4-2 win
over the Phillies in a battle of attrition at Citizens Bank Park.
The game was th
Giants use offensive explosion to crush Reds >>
San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pablo Sandoval homered twice and joined
Andres Torres with four RBI each, as San Francisco pounded Cincinnati, 16-5,
in the second of three games at AT&T Park.
Sandoval pounded two of the game's
Davis, Rays stay hot in victory over Angels >>
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Evan Longoria and Matt Joyce homered off Ervin
Santana, and Wade Davis pitched into the sixth inning in his first game off
the disabled list, as the Rays topped the Angels, 10-3, for their fourth
straigh
The San Francisco 49ers (5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS in 2007; 1-1 SU & ATS in pre-season) found some offensive life last week, and they will try to build some momentum on Thursday night as they travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears (7-9 SU & ATS in 2007; 0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS in pre-season) in an NFL matchup that is set to get underway at 8 PM ET at Soldier Field (natural turf) in Chicago.
Thursday, August 21
NFL betting odds: CHICAGO -3 (-120), Total 37
NOTABLE STAT: San Francisco was last in points, last in total offense in 2007
KEY NFL BETTING TREND: SF has lost its last seven SU on pre-season road
In the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds, the Bears are listed as a three-point favorite (laying -120), with the total posted at 37 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):
* SF has lost 11 of its last 14 games SU
* SF has covered three of its last 11 games
* SF has lost six of its last seven road games SU
* SF has covered one of its last seven road games
* CHI has covered five of its last eight games
* CHI has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
* CHI has covered four of its last 13 home games
* SF has lost its last seven pre-season road games SU
* CHI has covered two of its last seven home pre-season games
Well, I guess we should congratulate the Bears on making their quarterback choice for the season's opening game, as they have designated Kyle Orton the starter against Indianapolis. The Bears obviously have lost patience with Rex Grossman, and what they do with him at this point is anybody's guess. But suffice it to say that there isn't a quarterback competition anymore, at least in training camp.
Meanwhile, the quarterback competition may also be settled in San Francisco, where the Niners bounced back from a lackluster 18-6 loss to the Raiders, in which they turned the ball over four times, to execute a 34-6 rout of the Packers last Saturday. However, coach Mike Nolan has stopped short of saying that, insisting that the job is still open. But J.T. O'Sullivan, the longshot of the trio of Niner signal-callers who opened camp, will start his third straight pre-season game here. Against Green Bay, O'Sullivan was only 8-for-17, and was intercepted, but he also threw for 9.1 yards an attempt, which included a 59-yard TD pass to Josh Morgan. The others struggled.
Some offensive cohesion is badly needed, in light of the Niners' dismal 2007 campaign, in which they were dead last in the NFL in scoring, with just 13.7 points a game. And O'Sullivan is the guy who is most familiar with offensive coordinator Mike Martz's exacting system, because he learned it last year in Detroit. O'Sullivan will go at least the entire first half and may even last longer. He'll be relieved by Alex Smith, with Shawn Hill doing the mop-up work. Three receivers who were out last week - Bryant Johnson, Ashley Lelie and Arnaz Battle - will miss this game too.
That may hurt a little here, especially since the Bears will be using a lot of their defensive starters. And it's the defense that has been keeping the Bears in games thus far. In fact, the defense and special teams were responsible for the first 19 points Chicago scored against Seattle last time out, as the offense really struggled with Grossman at the controls. But maybe the first-team offense has a chance to settle a little bit as it works more with Orton at the helm.
Certainly we have concerns about the Bears' offensive line, but we like the scenario for them here, especially if O'Sullivan doesn't make some bis plays. The Niners may have nowhere else to turn right now, and they have lost seven straight road games in the pre-season. Let's take Chicago, the three-point favorite in the NFL football betting odds.
CHICAGO -3 (-120) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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