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05/31/2008 - Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jay Bruce made his first major-league home run a game-winner, lifting the Cincinnati Reds to an 8-7 victory in 10 innings over the Atlanta Braves in the middle contest of a three-game set.
Ken Griffey Jr. blasted his 599th career home run, doubled and drove in three runs. But Bruce, who continued his hot start with three hits and a walk, stole the show.
Manny Acosta started the 10th with a strikeout of Jerry Hairston Jr., but Bruce followed by taking Acosta's pitch deep to right, giving the Reds their second consecutive extra-inning win. Cincinnati edged Atlanta on Friday, 3-2, in 11 innings.
Bruce's blast made a winner of Francisco Cordero (2-0), who entered for the 10th and allowed a leadoff single to Josh Anderson, but worked around it and got Mark Teixeira to line out to end the inning. Acosta (3-2) took the loss.
The Reds were only in position to win the game in extra innings because of a ninth-inning tally. Rafael Soriano walked Adam Dunn to start the frame, and pinch-runner Ryan Freel moved to third on a one-out single from Joey Votto.
David Ross grounded weakly to Soriano, who looked the runner back, but Freel raced home anyway as Soriano flipped to first for the out.
Teixeira then went home with a throw, but wasn't able to get Freel, who was safe and tied the game at 7-7. Braves manager Bobby Cox was ejected arguing the call, and the teams went to the 10th inning.
The Reds have now won four of five, despite a shaky start from Josh Fogg, who lasted only 3 1/3 innings and gave up six runs on seven hits and two walks.
Braves starter Jair Jurrjens didn't fare much better, as he also allowed six runs, on nine hits and six walks in just 4 1/3 innings.
Jeff Francoeur, Teixeira and Greg Norton added home runs for the Braves. Chipper Jones had two hits and three walks to raise his MLB-best average to .413 for Atlanta, which has dropped four of five.
The Reds wasted no time in getting to Jurrjens in the first. Bruce smacked a one-out single to center followed by Griffey's 599th home run, a line shot into the seats in right. Brandon Phillips followed that by cranking a homer to left, his 11th of the season.
Atlanta answered in the second by cutting the Reds' lead to one. Francoeur looped a lead-off single to left, and Norton took a full-count slider to the seats in right-center to bring the Braves within 3-2.
Cincinnati came right back in the home half, leading off with back-to-back singles from Hairston and Bruce. Hairston, who advanced to third on Bruce's knock, scored on a Griffey sacrifice fly. Edwin Encarnacion lined a two-out single to left three batters later, giving the Reds a 5-2 lead.
But Atlanta again fired back and tied the game in the third. Kelly Johnson took a leadoff double to right and Jones followed with a walk. Teixeira then clobbered a three-run shot to dead center to even things up.
Jurrjens helped himself in the fourth, leading off with a triple to right. Johnson brought him in with a one-out single off the newly inserted Jeremy Affeldt.
One inning later Jurrjens was in trouble, loading the bases on a single, double and a walk with one out. Hairston moved the runners along with a single to knot things up at 6-6 and chase Jurrjens from the game.
Royce Ring came on and induced a double-play groundout from Bruce to end the threat.
Francoeur broke open a tie game in the seventh, greeting David Weathers with a line-drive homer to right-center to start the frame.
Game Notes
Griffey remains 10 shy of Sammy Sosa (609) for fifth on the all-time home run list and looks to become only the sixth player ever to reach 600...The Reds took six of seven contests from Atlanta last season...Bobby Cox was ejected for the third time this season...Hairston extended his hitting streak to eight games...Jurrjens' six walks were a career-high.
<< Wings' Holmstrom out for Game 4
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Detroit Red Wings forward Tomas Holmstrom
is not in the lineup for Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals Saturday.
Holmstrom suffered an apparent leg or hamstring injury during Wednesday's 3-2
loss in Game
<< Hamlin dominates Nationwide race in Dover
Dover, DE (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Denny Hamlin led 131 of 200 laps en route to a
win in the rain-delayed Heluva Good! 200 Nationwide Series race at the Dover
International Speedway. The No.18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota crossed the finish
line 1.072 sec
<< Holmstrom's hamstring forces Wings LW out of Game 4
PITTSBURGH (AP) -Red Wings forward Tomas Holmstrom sat out Game 4 of the Stanley Cup finals Saturday night due to an injured hamstring.The top-line winger took an on-ice spin Saturday morning with his Detroit teammates to test out his injured right
<< Beltran, Tatis deliver as Mets come back to beat Dodgers
Flushing, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carlos Beltran hit a game-tying two-run home
run in the eighth inning, and Fernando Tatis delivered the winning run later
in the frame as the New York Mets rallied for a 3-2 win over the Los Angeles
Dodgers
Red Wings, Penguins deadlocked after one period in Game 4 >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh
Penguins each lit the lamp and are tied after 20 minutes of play in Game 4 of
the Stanley Cup Finals from Mellon Arena.
The Pens picked up the game's first po
Rangers' Jennings undergoes surgery, finished for season >>
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Texas Rangers pitcher Jason Jennings has been
shut down for the season after undergoing flexor tendon surgery in his right
forearm.
The surgery was performed Friday in Dallas by Dr. Keith Meister and
Kazmir stifling as Rays shut out White Sox >>
St. Petersburg, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Scott Kazmir threw seven shutout
innings, and Cliff Floyd hit a solo home run, as the Tampa Bay Rays squeaked
by the Chicago White Sox, 2-0, in the third installment of a four-game set.
B.J. Up
Ramirez hits 500th home run >>
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Boston Red Sox outfielder Manny Ramirez hit
his 500th career home run on Saturday.
Ramirez became the 24th player in major-league history to reach the plateau,
nailing the first pitch he saw from Oriol
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Matt Kenseth And Kevin Harvick Favorites To Take NASCAR Nextel Cup Championship
(September 15)—The NASCAR season has hit the homestretch with the opening event on this year’s Chase for the Cup taking place this weekend at the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire International Speedway. With 10 races remaining to determine the Cup Series champion, leading online sportsbook MySportsbook.com today announced odds on all 10 Chase qualifying drivers capturing the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship.
One of the largest sportsbook sites on the Internet, MySportsbook.com currently lists the top two drivers in the point standings as the early favorites to win the Nextel Cup. Entering the Chase for the Cup with a slim five-point lead in the point standings, 2003 NASCAR champ Matt Kenseth has been made a slight favorite to win his second Cup at 7/2 betting odds. 2001 Cup Rookie of the Year Kevin Harvick has betting odds listed at 5/2 and four-time NASCAR champion Jeff Gordon is listed at 6/1 to capture the Nextel Cup this year.
Hoping to follow in the footsteps of his legendary father who won six NASCAR titles, Dale Earnhardt Jr. stands at 8/1 to breakthrough with his first Cup victory. Staying with the family theme, MySportsbook.com lists 2005 Rookie of the Year Kyle Busch at 14/1 to succeed big brother Kurt’s 2004 NASCAR title. While Kasey Kahne was the final driver to qualify for the Chase with a third place finish last week, the oddsmakers give him a fighting chance at 10/1 mainly due to several mile-and-a-half tracks remaining on the schedule. Despite going winless on the NASCAR circuit this season, Jeff Burton enters the Chase at 5/1 to capture the Cup title. Meanwhile, rookie Denny Hamlin is 4/1 to win the championship, while veteran driver Mark Martin enters the Chase for the Cup as a 15/1 long shot to win his first NASCAR title in his 24th and final season.
MySportsbook.com will offer comprehensive Nascar betting lines on every race remaining on the Nextel Cup series including driver match-ups, props and odds to win each race. For a complete list of NASCAR odds, please visit www.MySportsbook.com.
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