No superstars just good horses in Pacific Classic

Horseracing Betting Lines

08/25/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The $1 million Pacific Classic guarantees the victor a spot in this year's Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs. It's unlikely that the horse will the favorite for the end-of-year race, but he will certainly get consideration.

Saturday's 20th Pacific Classic at Del Mar does not have any glamour names among the 10 entered. However, it's an excellent betting race that could produce big numbers.

Four-year-old gelding The Usual Q.T. is the 3-1 morning-line favorite. He will break from the far outside spot with Victor Espinoza again riding. Trained by Jim Cassidy, The Usual Q.T. is coming off a win in the Eddie Read Stakes at Del Mar on the turf. He races primarily on the grass, having won last year's Oak Tree and Hollywood Derbies on the infield.

"He's trained really well," Cassidy recently said. "Nothing riles him, nothing gets him upset. He's very happy. I've never - in early days maybe he was a little bit elusive. But right now, he's pretty quiet. He's laid back and he's quite happy with himself. He doesn't do anything silly. He gets himself a little worked up before a race. That's about it."

The Usual Q.T. has eight wins from 15 starts and a bankroll of just under $1 million. All of his victories have come on the turf and Saturday's event is on Del Mar's synthetic main track. The gelding was ninth in this year's Summer Millions Classic on Santa Anita's synthetic surface.

"He's learned to relax; it's made all the difference for him," Espinoza after the Eddie Read.

Defending Classic champ Richard's Kid is the 7-2 second choice. Last year he won the race as a 24-1 longshot over Einstein and Rail Trip. The five-year-old is trained by Bob Baffert and will start from post six with Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith back trying to duplicate last year's Pacific Classic victory tandem.

Richard's Kid is also on the verge of becoming a millionaire, he has won seven of 25 starts for $966,370. Along with a pair of seconds in his career, the veteran thoroughbred has finished third a total of seven times, including his last two starts in the Hollywood Gold Cup and Cougar II Handicap.

The 9-2 third pick is another veteran runner Awesome Gem. The richest horse in the race with more than $2.2 million in the bank, the seven-year-old gelding is trained by Craig Dollase for West Point Thoroughbreds.

This will be Awesome Gem's fourth time in the Classic, having been second to Student Council in 2007 and seventh the last two years. He captured the Hollywood Gold Cup on July 10, his seventh career win in 36 starts. Awesome Gem will start next to the favorite in the nine hole.

The rest of the field looks this way: Battle of Hastings, Brice Blanc, 10-1; Isle Of Giant's, Patrick Valenzuela, 30-1; Dakota Phone, Joel Rosario, 6-1; Temple City, Rafael Bejarano, 5-1; Unusual Suspect, Alonso Quinonez, 20-1; Hold Me Back, Garrett Gomez, 8-1 and Crowded House, Corey Nakatani, 20-1.

Wwwbaymeadows Horseracing Betting News

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

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